Every January, Wall Street does this adorable little tradition where everyone puts on their serious face and tries to predict what the stock market will do next year.

It’s basically the financial version of:

“I feel like the Bears are winning the Super Bowl this year.” (Although I do have high hopes for a Dodgers three-peat)!

Confident. Hopeful. And usually wrong.

So yes, you’ll see plenty of forecasts from big banks and market strategists. Some will say the S&P 500 will be up 10%. Some will say -5%. Some will say 18%. And if you check back mid-year, many of them will “revise” those predictions like they’re editing an Instagram caption. 

Here’s our forecast for 2026:

We don’t know.

And anyone who tells you they do know probably also thinks they can predict the next Bitcoin top.

Why we don’t forecast the market in the short-term

Because the data is pretty clear: short-term market forecasting is a bad use of oxygen.

The market reacts to:

• Interest Rate Policy

• Inflation Surprises

• Earnings

• Geopolitics

• Elections

• Ai Hype

• Oil Prices

• Consumer Behavior

• Random Tuesday Headlines

• And Whatever Elon Tweets Before Breakfast

So if you’re looking for certainty about what markets will do next year… you’re shopping in the wrong store.

And honestly? That’s okay. We design portfolios and financial plans assuming markets are unpredictable, not pretending they aren’t.

But wait… aren’t some forecasts still useful?

Yes, just not the “what happens this year?” kind.

Forecasting works better when we zoom out.

There’s a spectrum:

• Treasury Bills (very predictable): We basically know what that rate is going to pay over the next year.

• Intermediate bonds (somewhat predictable): We can estimate a reasonable range.

• Stocks (not predictable short-term): could be up 25%, down 20%, or flat… and it’ll all feel “normal.”

• Crypto (pure vibes): no comment.

Where forecasting becomes useful is in long-term planning because even though stocks are chaotic year-to-year, they’ve historically rewarded patient investors over time.

For example:

• Over 10-year periods, the S&P 500 has been positive around 95% of the time.

• Over 20-year periods, long-term returns tend to cluster around 8%–10% annually.

Nothing is guaranteed, ever, but that kind of historical context helps us build retirement plans, spending strategies, and long-term expectations that are grounded in reality (not wishful thinking).

The bigger issue: most people don’t even know what their portfolio did

This is one of the most important parts of the whole conversation:

A lot of investors think they “got market returns” when they didn’t.

Because if your portfolio is:

• Heavily concentrated in a few stocks

• Tilted aggressively toward one sector

• Missing international exposure

• Loaded with cash because you’re waiting for “the dip”

• Or designed based on headlines and vibes…

 
Then your portfolio won’t behave like “the market.”

And that’s not automatically bad… but it does mean:

• Your results can be more unpredictable

• Your long-term projections become less reliable

• And your experience will be emotionally harder during volatility

As a planner, reliability matters because we’re not investing for sport. We’re investing to fund real goals: retirement, a home, freedom, family, generosity, legacy, and peace of mind.

So what should we focus on in 2026?

If we can’t control returns, what can we control?

Plenty.

Here’s what we actually focus on:

• Your budget and cash flow (because wealth is built with margin)

• Tax strategy (one of the few “guaranteed” ways to improve outcomes)

• Estate planning (because your money should go where you want, not where the court decides)

• Insurance and risk management (protect the plan, don’t just build it)

• Asset allocation and diversification (boring… and very effective)

• Behavior and discipline (this one beats almost every market strategy long-term)

Markets will do what they do. Our job is to make sure your plan still works whether the market has a great year… or a humbling one.

Quick reality check after a strong run

U.S. stocks have done very well recently, and that’s great. But strong stretches tend to do something dangerous:

They make investors feel like:

• “This is just how markets work now”

• “Maybe volatility is over”

• “Maybe we should take more risk because it’s been so easy”

That’s usually when the market reminds everyone that it still has hands.

So we’re going into 2026 with a calm mindset:

• Optimistic long-term
• Humble short-term
• Focused on process over prediction

The takeaway

We don’t make one-year market forecasts because they’re unreliable and distracting. 

But we do use long-term data to build smart expectations, and we focus heavily on the things that actually move the needle: taxes, planning, allocation, and behavior.

Because you don’t need to predict the market to succeed.

You just need a good plan… and the temperament to stick with it.